03/29/2020 | 按摩 | No Comments
Gujing Liquor (000596): Huizhou wine faucet upgrade lasts vintage vintage pulp fragrance nationwide
Anyway, the chaos will be revitalized.
The blessing of the “eight famous wines” gene. The company led the liquor industry in the 1990s. In the late 1990s, due to the transformation of “price reduction and dimension reduction”, the diversified development strategy entered a recession.
In 2007, the reforms in the midst of twists and turns, the new term is stable and efficient, the introduction of old-fashioned pulp series, continuous channel “three links project”, the company once again entered a healthy development track.
The current competitive landscape in the province is clear, and the company will continue to consolidate its leading guidance in the future.
Looking at the province: fully benefit from the expansion of the sub-high-end market, with a total of more than 10 billion expected in the future.
Looking at the mid-to-high-end market, the company explores the market with vintage puree series and leads the province’s mid-to-high-end competition with high brand / channel / product strength. In 18 years, the company’s internal mid-to-high-end products such as Gu 5 and gift offerings accounted 西安耍耍网 for over 60%In the province’s mid- to high-end market, the market share exceeds 40%. In the future, under the trend of concentration on the right, the disadvantages of famous wine brands / channels inside and outside the province appear, and Gujing will further consolidate its leading advantage.
From the perspective of the sub-high-end market, consumption upgrades have driven the mainstream price band in the province to continue to rise above 200 yuan, and the trend of sub-high-end capacity expansion is expected.
Looking at the development of enterprises and macroeconomic indicators, the Jiangsu liquor market is generally about 4 years ahead of Anhui. The benchmark liquor consumption in Anhui Province is expected to reach 31 billion in 2022, and the next high-end share will exceed 9 billion. CAGR of 18-22 yearsAt 25%, the company currently has a high volume of ancient eight, and the market share of the sub-high-end market is relatively high. Under the background of the extremely high barriers to channeling famous wines into Anhui, the company will make full use of the sub-high-end market ‘s nearly 5 billion expansion bonus in the future.
From the perspective of future space, the company’s current high-end products in the province are steadily growing, and the high-end products maintain high-speed growth. In the future, the share of the province is expected to exceed 10 billion under the two-wheel drive. The revenue structure is further optimized. The proportion of sub-high-end products and above is expected to reach 40.% And holds over 40% of the shares in the province’s secondary high-end market.
Exploring outside the province: Relay brand + channel advantage, strategy based on city.
The company has the advantage of brand + channel, and the popularity of the wine puree series has increased outside the province, building brand barriers; while the factory setting model represented by high channel control / execution power / bargaining power has established the company’s channel barriers.
Relaying brand / channel advantages, the company promoted the flooding of nationalization due to the city ‘s policy. In response to the weak Yulu market of real estate wine, it participated in the competition by copying the “three links project” channel model; targeting Hubei Province, a strong core market of real estate wine, the company acquired localThe famous wine Huanghelou made the cut; for the stable East China market, it strengthened cooperation with large businessmen and looked forward to taking the lead.
Adapt to local conditions and benign development, it is expected that the market outside the province will provide important contributions to the company’s performance in the future.
Entering the harvest period of expenses, the profit elasticity will continue to be released.
At present, the company enters the period of return on investment, and the expenditure of advertising + promotion expenses tends to be stable, and the sales / management expense ratio will tend to go down under the effect of scale.
After 14 years, the company’s net profit bottomed out and rebounded to 21 in 19H.
At the level of 3%, with the smooth development outside the province + optimization of product structure + continued decline in expense rate, the elasticity of profits will be released in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: As the leading company in Huizhou, the company is internally stable and will fully benefit from the high-end expansion bonus in the future. The national layout is also worth looking forward to.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will increase by more than + 31% / 22% / 18% in 19-21, and the corresponding EPS will be 4 respectively.
31 yuan, corresponding PE is 34/28 / 23X, the first coverage, giving the company a “Buy” rating.
Risk prompts: Macroeconomic downturn; increased competition within the province; blocked expansion outside the province; food safety and other issues.